Send to friendThis is not a "doom and gloom" scenario, this is "just the fact ma'am". This directly from the horses mouth(Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees) and was published in their 2009 Annual Report summary here.
What is the Short-Range Outlook (2009-18) for the Trust Funds?
For the short range, the adequacy of the OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds is measured by comparing their assets at the beginning of a year to projected costs for that year (the "trust fund ratio"). A trust fund ratio of 100 percent or more—that is, assets at least equal to projected costs for a year—is considered a good indicator of a fund's short-term adequacy. That level of projected assets for any year means that even if expenditures exceed income, the trust fund reserves, combined with annual tax revenues, would be sufficient to pay full benefits for several years, allowing time for legislative action to restore financial adequacy.
By this measure, the OASI Trust Fund is financially adequate throughout the 2009-18 period, but the DI Trust Fund fails the short-range test because its trust fund ratio falls below 100 percent by the beginning of 2014. The HI Trust Fund also does not meet the short-range test of financial adequacy. Its trust fund ratio is expected to fall below 100 percent in 2011 and assets are expected to be exhausted in 2017, two years earlier than reported last year. Chart A shows the trust fund ratios through 2025 under the intermediate assumptions.
